A selection of 44 years of delivery across UKCS energy policy, capital markets, automotive strategy, and longitudinal academic research.
UKCS Research · Working Paper No. 1
Corporate Demography Using Event History Analysis: A Primer for Practitioners
The inaugural paper in the Meginráð UKCS EHA Series. Applies the Hannan-Freeman Organisational Ecology framework and Cox Proportional Hazards survival analysis to the UKCS field population.
Key Themes: Density dependence, liability of obsolescence, structural imprinting, and the nine ecological eras (Hannan's Extended Taxonomy).
Fiscal Impact: Models the EPL as a time-varying covariate across three administrations to quantify policy-induced mortality.
EHA Series · Restricted CirculationApril 2026
UKCS Research · Working Paper No. 2
The UKCS Cascade Contagion Model: Field-Level Hazard Analysis with Water Cut Extension
The second paper in the Series extends the framework with water cut as a time-varying reservoir depletion covariate.
Dataset: 10,175 NSTA field-year observations (1975-2026), 479 fields, 141 confirmed CoP events.
Findings: Water Cut HR = 2.522 (p=0.003); Decom DP Approved HR = 6.528 (p<0.001) [V15.6.0, verified against Canonical Outputs Register].
Predictive Output: hub-level cascade aggregation model: FPS 83.0% and Norpipe 99.8% probability of at least one throughput-critical closure by 2030, and the highest-risk fields by cumulative CoP probability.
UKCS EHA Series · Restricted CirculationMay 2026 · v15
Energy Voice · Analysis and Commentary · May 2026
Twenty-Five Fields in a Single Year: What EHA Reveals About the UKCS
A public-facing survival analysis of NSTA production data, identifying 2024 as the highest field cessation rate in two decades.
The Treasury Paradox: Quantifies the EPL's contribution to cessation acceleration as separable from geological decline.
Strategic Horizon: Identifies the 2028 infrastructure decision window and the escalating basin-level decommissioning liability.
UKCS EHA Series · PublicPublished May 2026
Automotive Strategy · Confidential Client
Autobox: Emerging Strategy, Delivery Issues and Constraints
Comprehensive strategic analysis of a Chinese automotive robotics supplier's European expansion.
Scope: Identified 15 critical operational bottlenecks across Strategy, Internal Processes, and Communications.
Impact: Priority-ranked action plan delivered at Board level to facilitate engagements with BMW, JLR, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Volvo Sweden.
Management Consulting · China-EU2024
Capital Markets · Warsaw Stock Exchange
WSE Business Strategy and Electronic Trading Systems Implementation
Senior advisor to the President of the Warsaw Stock Exchange during Poland's post-communist capital markets modernisation.
Scope: Directed business strategy, electronic trading systems implementation, and central depository infrastructure development.
Global Context: One of 15+ exchange and monetary authority engagements spanning five continents (including NSE India, MAS, and SAMA).
Capital Markets · PwCWarsaw · 22 months
Doctoral Research · Durham University
Event History Analysis Applied to Corporate Vital Event Demography
The foundational methodology for the Meginráð UKCS EHA research programme.
The Framework: A longitudinal study tracing how policy imprinting, mortality dynamics, and organisational death evolve over multi-decade horizons.
Academic Lineage: Supervised by Laszlo Polos (Carroll/Stanford tradition), bridging organisational ecology and North Sea industrial application.
Research Methodology · UKCS ApplicationDBA Durham
Strategic Note for the Reader
Every engagement listed above. From the 1990s modernisation of European capital markets to the 2026 modelling of North Sea hub contagion. Each is an expression of the Meginráð Integrity Loop : we do not offer generic advice; we provide prescriptive intelligence derived from four decades of managing high-stakes system mortality.