Three converging lines define the structural crisis. The Treasury Paradox: revenue decays as the tax base the EPL was designed to exploit is liquidated by the very instrument intended to capture it.
UKCS tax income fell from £9.9 billion (2022–23) to a projected £2.7 billion (2025–26). The EPL liquidated the revenue base it sought to exploit. Accelerating the cessation of the primary assets it sought to tax.
An 83.0% probability of a throughput-critical FPS event by 2030. The FPS and Flotta are also the physical prerequisites for increasing UK energy security and reducing the embedded carbon associated with imported energy. This reframes stewardship as a Net Zero imperative.
The threshold where revenue decay crosses the contagion probability. Where decommissioning of critical FPS nodes becomes economically obligatory. Decisions about infrastructure preservation must be made before this window closes.